The Battle for the Áras: Stories and Strategies from the 2025 Election

Today Ireland will elect its 10^th president. With potential candidates from the world of entertainment, business, MMA and the far right, Ireland’s race to replace Michael D Higgins as President was, right from the beginning, the subject of copious column inches. As the weeks rolled on it emerged as three-way contest between Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, Fianna Fail’s Jim Gavin, and independent Catherine Connolly. Then it slimmed down to two albeit with three listed on the ballot paper.

Although limited in scope, the President does have an important symbolic and international role, first carved out by Mary Robinson in 1990, particularly in British Irish relations. This was built on by her successor, Belfast-born Mary McAleese, who hosted the first official visit by a British monarch to Ireland since independence in 2011. This was followed by Michael D. Higgins, who has served in the role since 2011, who made a milestone State Visit to the UK in 2014.

It’s been a campaign defined by firsts, including an AI deepfake video that surfaced on Tuesday, insinuating that Connolly had withdrawn from the election. This was somewhat fitting given Connolly’s much commented upon online campaign, which cleverly and often humorously pitched Connolly as the change candidate—a strident alternative and challenge to the current ruling administration.

Since 1990, every presidential race has had its moment of drama, and Jim Gavin stepped up to the mark just 18 days into the campaign when it emerged that he had failed to return 3300 euros of overpaid rent to a former tenant.

The news was a hammer blow to what had been a pretty lacklustre campaign, with Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, Michael Martin, coming under heavy criticism for going beyond party ranks for a candidate.

Having retired from public life in 2024, Humphreys had initially ruled herself out of the race. Her extensive ministerial experience was a blessing and a curse – networked and familiar but tied to the policies and perceptions of the two main political parties.

One of the few elected representatives from a Protestant background, Humphreys’ links with Ulster Unionism and Northern Ireland were her USP but didn’t get the positive cut-through that might have been expected or hoped for by some.

Criticism was directed at the Humphreys campaign for the accusations they made relating to Connolly’s work for banks in home repossessions during her time as a barrister. Humphreys has denied allegations of a “smear campaign” against Connolly and pointed towards the “horrible things” people have directed towards her and her family on social media.

Despite a longstanding political rivalry, Connolly is very much the continuity candidate for the outgoing president, Michael D Higgins, echoing his criticism of Israel and his support for Irish neutrality. Add to this her criticism of the EU, she managed to be both the continuity candidate and the change candidate - no mean achievement.  

On the eve of voting, despite an appeal to middle Ireland, Humphreys continued to trail in the polls by some margin. While presidential elections generally have lower turnouts, just how many of the over 3.5 million voters will turn out today? How many of them will vote for Jim Gavin, who remains on the ballot?

By Saturday night, we will know who is set to become the new Head of State, but only time will tell how they fare on the international stage and in balancing their relationship with the current government.