Analysis: Nigel Farage speech on the economy

Key takeaways

·       Positioning as a serious party of government

·       Focus on economic credibility and sound public finances

·       Merging Thatcherite free-market policies with state interventionism

·       Preparing Reform for 2027 general election

Earlier today, Connect colleagues attended a high-profile speech from Reform leader Nigel Farage. The event was held inside Banking Hall, nestled in the City of London just a stone’s throw from the Bank of England.

The choice of venue appropriately reflected the focus of the speech: the grounding principles of Reform’s economic programme, with financial services as an example of a world-leading industry which could drive future growth.

Nigel Farage isn’t the first politician to make a speech in the Square Mile, symbolising a commitment to economic growth, dynamism, prosperity, and all the other good things politicians want. In other ways, too, this was a stereotypical political event. The crowd was largely comprised of MPs, journalists, policy wonks, lobbyists, and industry.

That said, today felt like an important speech, clearly intended to act as a line in the sand. This was a “ground zero” moment in which Nigel Farage attempted to define the first principles of a future Reform government, with fiscal credibility and a pro-business approach at its heart.

First, and most strikingly, Mr Farage barely mentioned immigration. When he did, it was in the context of growth and the public finances.

This speech was all about the economy. Mr Farage railed against public debt, sluggish growth, green subsidies, over-regulation, and incompetent ministers. He promised that a Reform government would be filled with industry leaders as opposed to career politicians.

Mr Farage even took aim at large multinationals, arguing that SMEs are the true growth generators and that successive governments have spent too long focusing primarily on big business. With the Autumn Budget coming down the tracks later this month, he also warned that the Chancellor would be forced to raise taxes once again, a symptom of the UK’s ongoing malaise.

In many ways, Mr Farage’s speech was unrepentantly Thatcherite. He compared the UK’s situation today to the late 1970s. There can be no doubt that in his mind – as in the late 1970s – the UK needs a radically different approach.

Yet Mr Farage’s speech wasn’t simply a rerun of a Thatcherite playbook. He also signalled a merging of the old with the new. He was emphatic in his support for selective government involvement in the economy – even suggesting that emergency nationalisation has its uses, as in the case of British Steel.

It is for this reason that Mr Farage’s speech was fascinating to listen to. Part-Thatcherite, part “old Labour”, and intended to provide a coherent economic vision to unite Reform’s disparate electoral base.

Reform’s positioning reflects the broader political realignment taking place across the West. The old left-right divisions are not what they once were. In some respects, this mirrors the approach from President Trump in the US. To Mr Farage, as to President Trump, it is possible to marry wealth creation, self-sufficiency, and economic dynamism with state direction of the economy. 

And herein lies the paradox of Reform. A speech by an ex-trader in the City of London, surrounded by citizens of the “Westminster bubble”, pledging to rip up the political rulebook and overturn the established order. 

Strikingly, Mr Farage repeated his belief that there would be a general election in 2027, forced upon the government by “economic collapse”. Should that happen, Reform needs to be ready for government in very short order. Today’s speech felt like the start of that process.