Plaid Cymru Conference Preview

By Charlie Forbes, Account Manager, Connect.

Plaid Cymru will come together in the north Welsh seaside town of Llandudno this weekend for its autumn conference, its first as a party of government in the Senedd.

Delegates attending at the weekend will no doubt allow themselves some self-congratulation. After over a century of opposition, the party finally has the chance to govern Wales, albeit as a minority administration.

As the party settles into Government and the realities of running the country are becoming apparent, Connect will be in Llandudno throughout the conference and looking to answer some of the following questions:

Has the party shifted gear out of campaign mode?

Having spent so long in opposition, Plaid Cymru must now redefine itself as a party than can govern, not just campaign. Where once they could land blows on Labour, the only party to hold power at Cardiff Bay before this year, now it will be their feet which voters will hold to the fire.

As NHS waiting times have ticked up slightly over the summer, voters will forgive Plaid for laying the blame for the state of public services on the previous administration, but only for a time. This Conference must mark the point where the party begins to take ownership over Wales’s problems, and where they sound to the public like they’re wielding power rather than pitching for it.

Is their honeymoon already over?  

All political honeymoons must come to an end, but a series of early vote defeats, including on hospitals, Additional Learning Needs funding and their Supplementary Budget before the summer suggests the transition to power has been a steep learning curve for Plaid. The First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has made much of his intention to take a cooperative approach with other parties, but it’s clear Welsh Labour will drive a hard bargain and is in no mood to be amicable after Plaid helped rout the party in May.

Governing with a minority of seats makes things more challenging, but this is a feature, not a bug of the Senedd system, and one they had better adapt to. The Supplementary Budget would have paved the way to financing their early priorities; its defeat instead casts doubt over the delivery of flagship promises, including the expansion of funded childcare outlined in the party’s ‘First 100 Days’ document published in February. With that first 100 days in power now in the rear view mirror, Plaid Cymru will be hoping this Conference weekend can help draw a line under early stumbles and reckon with the challenge of how to deliver on their manifesto promises in the face of an emboldened opposition not inclined to compromise.

Is Wales now a bit more politically Scottish?

When the SNP first won an election in 2007 they persevered as a minority government, determined to prove they could capably run the country as a necessary first step towards earning public consent for an independence referendum. Initially, Plaid’s Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth looked as though he would take a similar tack, playing down Welsh independence during the election campaign.

And yet, Mr ap Iorwerth recently addressed an independence rally in Aberystwyth, even joining a recent summit with the leaders of the SNP and Sinn Féin to provocatively proclaim “Westminster’s time is coming to an end”. Increasingly, Welsh politics might start to resemble Scotland’s in its dynamics. Recent polling puts support for Welsh independence at roughly similar levels to Scotland’s when a referendum was granted by David Cameron.

At First Minister’s Questions this week a fiery exchange with the Leader of the Welsh Conservatives over the independence issue may indicate that opposition parties are catching up to what the SNP’s rivals have long known: that there are dividends to be had in bashing the nationalists for their nationalism. That might make it even more untenable for them to cooperate with unionist Labour, whose votes Plaid will need to deliver on their manifesto pledges. It will be interesting to see at this weekend’s conference just how much the party faithful are up for the fight, or if they feel it’s not worth having at this time.

Conclusion

With the official opposition Reform UK Wales in the doldrums following a criminal investigation involving its leader Dan Thomas and a shock defection of one of its MSs to Plaid Cymru, on paper Plaid faces few immediate political roadblocks save for its own government inexperience. They will be hoping for a Conference which showcases their political coming-of-age and revives the sense of momentum that carried them to Cardiff Bay in May.