Conservative Party Conference Preview

By Harry Methley, Senior Counsel, Connect

It is almost twelve months to the day since Robert Jenrick, then-Conservative Shadow Justice Secretary, stood on stage at Conservative Party Conference in Manchester brandishing a judge’s wig. His speech reached well beyond the justice brief and, despite his protestations, was widely seen as positioning for another leadership run.

At the time the party was divided, the wounds from the leadership election were still raw and Kemi Badenoch was facing persistent questions about both her leadership and the party’s flatlining position in the polls.

Twelve months later, a lot has changed. Reform are in hot water over their finances, the Conservative’s polling figures are ticking up and a reshuffle of the shadow cabinet went without a hitch. Things seem to be shifting in Badenoch’s favour.

But there are big questions for the party to answer, especially with a new Prime Minister offering fresh ideas and a ‘new politics’. As Conservatives gather in Birmingham, here are four questions that the Connect team will be looking to answer.

1) Do the Kemi detractors stay quiet?

There is no doubt the last few months have been better for Kemi Badenoch. She has found her stride and is looking increasingly confident in the role. There has been some positive movement in the polls and, while nothing is likely to match Reform UK’s mega-donations, Conservative donors are beginning to re-engage.

MPs are presenting a united front and the increasingly positive commentary has silenced leadership chatter but there are still doubters in the parliamentary party.

May’s local elections saw Conservative councillors wiped from the map in parts of the country, depleting and depressing activist bases in the process. Next year’s elections, including in metropolitan authorities, unitaries and districts include places where the Conservatives still hold control. MPs, councillors and volunteers will not want to see a repeat of this year, but further movement in the polls will be needed for that to be avoided.

My suspicion is that the party will remain united at this conference. But it will be interesting to watch not just who is making noise and jostling for prominence in the newly revamped shadow cabinet, but who stays quiet or away altogether.

2) Is there a cohesive attack line on the new Labour party?

With Andy Burnham still introducing himself to much of the country as Prime Minister, the Conservatives have an important opportunity to try and frame the debate in their own way. The difficulty is that developing a political attack which lands takes time and quite a lot of research. There will be plenty of language and themes tested over the coming months but conference will give us a useful indication of which ones CCHQ think are beginning to cut through.

The party for now can fall back on its classic hits. The first is Labour as the welfare party. Burnham gave the Conservatives plenty to work with at PMQs when he said that national security ‘cannot come at the expense of social security’. No clearer a dividing line is there between parties who want to cut or increase welfare and defence spending. With the party announcing new policy aimed at getting more under-25s into work this is a wedge the party will continue to drive over conference.

Linked to this is the economy, with the Autum budget looming, attacks on Labour as the party of tax increases will continue. Burham announced a raft of future commitments at Labour conference, but with some unclear spending plans, to add to those made over the summer.

3) How much of the focus is on Reform and is any time dedicated to beating the Liberal Democrats?

Reform UK has dominated internal Conservative discussions since the 2024 election. With Reform UK and Zia Yusuf’s ‘No More Tories!’ deadline for Conservative defectors having passed, and the party having faced a tricky summer, it will be interesting to see how both MPs and the grassroots now talk about the threat and how to combat it. Do they see Reform’s peak as having passed, with voters simply expected to ‘come home’? Or are there more realistic conversations taking place about why those voters left in the first place and what the Conservatives must do to win them back?

There is another side of the Conservative coalition which can’t be forgotten. There are around 85 constituencies where in the 2024 election the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats came first or second, and the challenges faced in these seats can be very varied.  The Conservatives recognised this last year, setting up a new campaigning operation designed to sharpen doorstep strategy and give MPs and activists a more tailored approach depending on whether their principal opponent was Labour, Reform or the Liberal Democrats. It will be noteworthy to see how much time is spent focusing on this often-forgotten part of the Conservative electoral coalition, rather than allowing Reform to dominate conversations about the party’s route back to power.

4) Is an attractive policy offer emerging from the party?

Last year Kemi used her conference speech to announce the abolition of stamp duty, an announcement that went down well with members and MPs alike. This year CCHQ are dubbing the conference a ‘festival of ideas’. Are they about to pull another rabbit out of the hat? Beyond the headline announcement, it will also be worth looking at what emerges from the other shadow teams. Is a broader Conservative offer beginning to take shape which can navigate the baggage of the last government, and attract the attention and support of voters?