In Gorton and Denton, the political winds blow in both directions

by Charlie Forbes Beyond the usual fanfare that accompanies by-elections, Gorton and Denton is a proving ground for what happens when an increasingly fractured political sphere meets the hard reality of a winner takes all voting system.

Described as a “Frankenstein’s monster” of a seat, the constituency straddles a diverse cross-section of Greater Manchester, and with it a collection of voter tribes whose choices will be pored over in the weeks to come.

Timing wise, tomorrow’s poll comes as Starmer has seen off a mutiny – for now – whilst alternative parties are in the ascendancy. The Prime Minister’s campaign visit to the seat in the last week is notable in itself, if only as a hint of Labour’s quiet internal confidence going into the vote; some Labour officials will be keen to avoid the optics of the Prime Minister campaigning in a seat, only for the party to lose.

And yet once-outside prospects must fancy their chances too. Reform UK, a party not yet eight years of age, are out in front in national polling and keen to make their mark, while the Green Party, under new management, are the bookies favourite going into Thursday.

On the face of it, it’s just one seat, and behind the media spectacle, won’t change the fundamentals. Yet whoever emerges on top in this contest will provide crucial momentum and a boost to their activist base ahead of a far bigger prize: the local and devolved elections in May. Should Labour lose, there will be hand-wringing and a chorus of voices arguing for a shift in direction (rightwards or leftwards, winner dependent).

As for analysts, the outcome of this too-close-to-call race is a weathervane offering insights into the direction of travel. If the age of two party politics is truly over as Sir John Curtice has declared, what might the vote count in the Manchester suburbs tell us about British politics’ trajectory?

Horse Trading

If the Greens cruise to victory, they will surely have been helped by some notable absences on the ballot paper. First past the post contests always force voters into tactical decision making, yet fringe parties are clearly displaying a willingness to stand aside to help their cause.

George Galloway’s Workers Party, and Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party, have each publicly stepped aside and implicitly given their backing to the Greens. This coalescence of the left bloc around the Greens’ Hannah Spencer could make all the difference in such a tight contest. Even if not all of their voters heed the endorsement, the departure of these left alternatives from the pitch frees up energy and affords the Greens a clear run at their main opponents.

Such pacts also make a muddle of typical voter modelling.  Simply combining one party’s tally with another’s is best avoided. The Greens and Workers Party may see eye to eye on Palestine for example, but have divergent views on social issues. How effectively a wedge can be driven between one party and the next by opponents may mean all the difference in a contest expected to go down to the wire, a fact borne out in the notably negative slant to campaigning seen in recent weeks.

Horse Shoe Theory

Such tactical voting becomes even bendier when you consider voter motivations. The standard left/right split presented in commentary is proving to be a spectrum which curves in on itself, making strange bedfellows of polar opposite parties.

A recent constituency-level poll is instructive. Polling conducted by Omnisis also explored how people might vote in a two-way fight between each of the three frontrunners of Labour, Reform and the Greens. While the Greens and Labour’s voters display a stronger preference for each other against Reform, Reform’s voter base would split 2 to 1 respectively in a straight fight between Greens and Labour, excluding don’t knows and refusals to vote.

In a triangular matchup such as this, the convergence of differing voter motivations matters hugely. Might a floating Green voter, disillusioned with the Government, lend their vote to Reform's Matt Goodwin to send a message to Starmer? Or might a Reform voter, turned off by the Greens' liberal stance on immigration, place a tick in Labour's box? 

These open questions go some way to explaining the fierce comms (and a few questionable charts) from each side claiming they are in pole position. Perceptions matter, and if the electorate are minded to vote tactically, they need to know they’re backing a winning horse.

Waiting on the Wings

Gorton and Denton, with its unusual composition, is also the ideal testing ground for the big question hanging over the Labour Party – where should Starmer, now relieved of his key architect Morgan McSweeney, now tack? The three-way fight, and the challenge posed by Reform and the Greens, exemplifies the forces eroding Labour’s position on either side.

Labour, the big tent party whose pitch has always been to middle England, will find it tricky to carve out a winning coalition from a fragmented electorate; a concession to one wing can mean losing ground with the other. The outgoing McSweeney was said to have encouraged Starmer to concede to Reform-curious voters on matters such as immigration. Exactly how the final divide falls in terms of votes may hasten a change in direction for Labour.

A Levelled Playing Field?

Gorton and Denton will also mark the first time Reform and the Greens have properly locked horns since Zack Polanski came to the Greens’ helm as leader. Thursday will be a road test for how parties outside of the Labour/Tory circle can capitalise on discontentment with the status quo, and will reveal the extent of their powers when it comes to a ground game and getting out the vote.

For all their differences, these outsider parties share in having a charismatic leader, online presences that in many ways have outmanoeuvred the government’s, and a pitch to voters that business-as-usual can’t be allowed to continue. Pulling off victory in Labour’s electoral backyard will be a trophy that signals they’re more than just a flash in the pan.