Blogs and Briefings
One year on - winners and looser
Connect’s Steve Barwick looks back at the first year of the Coalition and explains why Nick Clegg has gone from hero to zero, but David Cameron still comes up smelling of roses
May 2011 - Connect Intelligence Briefing
What we know...
The Coalition has been both radical and inconsistent
Radical
The Coalition has shown a determination not to repeat the mistakes of Blair’s early years in power and chose to take on the reform of public services in year one. Everything from schools - despite the reluctance of the teaching unions, to welfare reform - despite the potential costs of universal benefits, to health - despite the promise of no top down re-organisation, to tuition fees - despite the backlash; there has been a relentless willingness to press ahead with radical policy change. Arguably, in proposing reforms to the police, they have challenged a workforce that even Mrs Thatcher shied away from.
On top of this, the Coalition has taken a steadfast position on reducing the deficit, is reorganising regional government and has gone to war in Libya. Many commentators have suggested that fighting on so many fronts will catch up with the Coalition but, apart from the ‘pause’ in health, there is little sign of this happening. The coalition partners decided at the outset to be bold and not compromise. It will be the Coalition’s success, or lack of it, in delivering public service reform that will define its legacy.
Inconsistent
Localism may be the guiding principle of much of the Coalition’s domestic agenda but there seems to be several paradoxes which have yet to be resolved. A number of public services such as education by way of academies, free schools are being further removed from the control of elected officials whilst police commissioners are to be elected. Local authorities meanwhile have had their budgets cut and been offered new financial freedoms – as long as they don’t increase council tax – and then at the last Budget the Government created a special ring-fenced fund for potholes.
Of course there have been a number of public U-turns, from the forestry sell off to school sports, from the book trust funding to price competition in the NHS. There have been other significant changes to policies and approach, on Parliamentary constituencies, prisoner votes and the ‘pause’ on the Health and Social Care Bill. Such pragmatism, perhaps, defines David Cameron as a Conservative Prime Minister who has had to move away from the ideological approach taken by Conservative leaders of recent decades.
Nick Clegg has gone from hero to zero
It would appear that Nick Clegg has taken the brunt of the Coalition’s unpopularity. However, it was agreeing to the radical rise in tuition fees that led him from hero to zero in such rapid time. Having said so publicly that he, and his party, would not support an increase in tuition fees he was guilty of the one crime politicians should never commit – being accused of making promises that he could not keep. The party was duly punished in May this year at the local elections.
Any review of winners and losers over the past twelve months would show that Liberal Democrat discomfort is not confined to Mr. Clegg. David Laws had one of the shortest Cabinet careers ever, Vince Cable fell for the Telegraph’s entrapment and subsequently lost responsibility for telecoms (as well as much of his credibility) and Chris Huhne seems to be lacking in friends whilst ‘pointsgate’ rumbles on.
David Cameron is still coming up smelling of roses
Has Cameron been lucky or has he proven his political mettle? To actually win a higher share of the popular vote in May 2011 than in May 2010 – 38% compared to 36% - was an exceptional result. Add to that a decisive and triumphant intervention in the AV referendum debate, getting the Libyan NATO-led operation supported by the UN without controversy or delay, and his polished performances both in the House and elsewhere all suggest skill not luck.
Looking at the Cabinet winners and losers would suggest that this effect is not confined to Cameron. George Osborne’s stature has improved over the past twelve months despite those who expected the reverse. Phillip Hammond has performed well along with Jeremy Hunt and latterly William Hague. Meanwhile a wealth of talent is bubbling under – Greg Clark at Communities and Local Government, Mark Prisk at BIS, Nick Herbert at the Home Office, Justine Greening at the Treasury and Teresa Villiers in Transport. If only they had five more cabinet seats!
The most rebellious Government ever?
Many commentators believed that Parliament would be more powerful with a Coalition Government. However the Coalition has not lost one vote in the Commons, enjoying a healthy 80 strong majority which can survive rebellions – of which there have been many. In fact there were rebellions in 59 of the first 110 divisions of the new Parliament, a record for a new Government in its first term.
On average, there is now a rebellion in 45% of divisions by one or more coalition MPs. These rebellions are split between backbenches of both coalition parties. 78 Conservative MPs have so far rebelled - 70% of the time on constitutional issues and 20% on Europe. In comparison, 30 Liberal Democrat MPs have rebelled or abstained, 70% of the time on social issues. Historically, the number of rebellions increases the longer parliaments last, so the somewhat volatile nature of politics since May 2011 is likely to continue.
