Blogs and Briefings
One night in Iowa
Connect's very own US Correspondent Caroline Gordon thinks the biggest winner of the Iowa caucus wasn’t even on the ballot…
5 January
What a night! What a finish! What a mess!
The dramatic climax to the first vote in the Republican primary calendar - the Iowa caucus - delivered it all. After 122,255 votes were cast across the state throughout Tuesday evening, everyone’s least-favourite favourite Mitt Romney scraped to victory by eight measly votes. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum nearly snatched the crown, an unthinkable prospect for a candidate who had been polling in low single digits until a sudden and late surge as the latest but most timely Anyone But Mitt candidate.
A decent third place result for 76 year old Congressman Ron Paul gives his dedicated supporters enough incentive to keep fighting. Poor results for the rest of the field has left them considering their options for the future. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann who won the hard-fought Iowa straw poll in the summer, has already bailed.
All good fun for election watchers. There will be plenty of analysis in the next week as the circus moves on to New Hampshire for the first primary. But in the meantime, here’s a few snippets that I have taken away.
When is a victory not a victory? When it feels like a defeat. If you had offered a Romney staffer an Iowa win three months ago they would have bitten your hand off. But to win by such a narrow margin, having almost lost to an opponent who spent $1.65 for every vote compared to your $113.07 can’t taste so sweet. Gallingly, Romney also failed to crack that stubborn 25% vote ceiling. If primary campaigns are all about momentum, this doesn’t quite feel like the running jump that it should. That’s not to say he won’t clear up from here on in. It’s just that once again his party has given him a resounding ‘we’re just not that into you’.
Investment is not all about money. During the endless Republican debates, Rick Santorum had cut a sad figure, always stuck out on a far wing of the horseshoe set, frequently pleading with moderators for a bit of air time. But behind the scenes, he was plugging away, meeting and greeting the Iowa voters, week after week, month after month. Santorum was the first candidate to visit all 99 Iowa counties. In a socially conservative state, he spoke their language and cared about their issues. With a comparatively tiny campaign budget, few endorsements, and little organisation, he still managed to almost pull off an astounding victory. For those who have become increasingly concerned about the impact of ever-spiralling campaign spending, it feels a little reassuring that money doesn’t have to be the be all and end all. Just a little, mind you – he’ll most likely get slaughtered as the race progresses…
Negative campaigning still works. For a brief window last month, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the frontrunner. But with more baggage than most, he was quickly and brutally cut down to size through attack adverts funded primarily by supporters of Mitt Romney. Gingrich saw his lead evaporate, eventually managing to secure just 13 per cent of the Iowa vote and a distant forth place. Luckily Rick Santorum’s surge came too late to receive such harsh treatment at the hands of his opponents, but as previous race leaders Rick Perry, Herman Cain and now Gingrich have seen, consistent punches below the waist can still cause a knock out.
Happy days for Barack Obama. Of course the real winner of last night was Barack Obama. As the survivor of a brutal primary campaign himself in 2008, Obama will no doubt appreciate what the Class of 2012 are going through. But watching your divided opponents tear each other apart without having to open your mouth must be a pleasure, especially when your most dangerous prospective challenger, Mitt Romney, is so openly being shunned by large chunks of his party. And after a particularly brutal year at the hands of Congressional Republicans, the Democrats must be asking if the Republican Party are finally giving the President a break.
