Blogs and Briefings
Cameron's European Problem
Ahead of Monday’s vote on proposals for an EU referendum, Connect’s Senior Policy Consultant Andrew Smith believes the Prime Minister must act to address the worsening relationship between Downing Street and Conservative backbenchers.
October 2011 - Connect Intelligence Briefing
The threat of a split between Downing Street and Conservative eurosceptic backbenchers, who are demanding a referendum over the UK’s relationship with the EU, will bring back unhappy memories for Conservatives who saw the Party rip itself apart over divisions on European policy in the 1990’s.
However, the direct analogy that some have tried to draw between the crucial votes to implement the Maastricht treaty, and Monday’s non-binding backbench business motion, are far-fetched. Conservative backbench rebellions have been quite a common occurrence over the first 18 months of the Coalition, with nearly a third of the 2010 intake having already rebelled. Indeed, most of the Conservative MPs supporting the motion for a referendum have ‘form’ as rebels.
That said, the extent of the unhappiness with the Government’s approach to the vote has now extended far beyond serial malcontents. The Government Whips Office is worried about their ability to quell a rebellion and it has become the first serious test of the Prime Minister’s authority over his own party since the election. Number 10’s decision to ensure that the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary can be present by moving the vote forward from next Thursday to Monday shows how seriously they see the threat.
It is normally towards the end of a Parliament when sacked former ministers and never-promoted backbenchers begin to cause significant problems. Considering we are still a long way off even the halfway mark of the five-year Parliament, it raises the question of how the Government has ended up in this position so quickly.
