Blogs and Briefings
Ed and the 6% benchmark
Despite the headlines, Connect’s Steve Barwick thinks it’s too early to write off Ed Miliband
11 January
You could be forgiven for thinking Labour were languishing in the opinion polls in last place given the column inches that Ed Miliband’s performance as leader has attracted of late.
But Labour are first not last – pretty consistently at 40/41% since the New Year and up from the 39/40% they were polling at the end of last year.
Yes, the Conservative’s have a remarkably resilient 38%. And yes, you could expect that at this point in the electoral cycle, and given the deficit reduction pain being inflicted on the young, the old and the squeezed middle, that Labour would be further ahead.
But it’s not a bad score – in fact it is significantly better than the very poor 29% of the vote they achieved in the General Election, and according to some pundits it would give Labour an outright majority of 20 seats.
So why all the attention on Ed’s performance? And so little on Nick Clegg, whose party are now languishing at around 11% in the polls? Clearly someone has realised attacking Ed is a good way of distracting the public from the Coalition’s less popular policies and also a good way to undermine Labour’s lead.
The really key statistic to look at it is how far Labour are ahead of the Conservatives as we approach a General Election. In the months before the 2010 election the Conservatives were consistently 6% points ahead of Labour – and that was not enough for them to win an outright majority.
However 6% is likely to be the behind the scenes benchmark for Ed. If Labour with him as Leader are 6% ahead at the Party Conference 18 months out from a General Election (October 2013) expect him still to be there!
If Labour fall behind the Conservatives by the Party Conference this year - or don’t stretch a lead as we go into 2013 - then those who wish him to be replaced within the Labour movement will get stronger.
Meanwhile for now he has a chance to express his vision, make some key decisions and at least let people know him and his leadership.
